The day before the draw…

In less than 24 hours the stage will be set for the final round of African qualifiers for South Africa 2010. At 1200 CET on Wednesday In Zurich, the 20 African nations still in the running will be divided into five groups of four teams where only the group winners will advance to the next edition of the World Cup. The consolation prize is that the best 3 in each group will earn a spot in the 2010 African Cup of Nations…but lets be honest, the focus for each nation now is only on winning the group, not securing a Cup of Nations berth. For any team that loses their first two games, their focus might shift to somehow creeping into third place to salvage something but those thoughts will be put aside for now.

Let’s take a look at the pots for the draw:

Pot 1 (top seeds)
Cameroon, Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire

Pot 2
Guinea, Morocco, Tunisia, Mali, Algeria

Pot 3
Burkina Faso, Gabon, Zambia, Kenya, Benin

Pot 4
Rwanda, Togo, Mozambique, Sudan, Malawi

Pretty straight forward draw, the teams in Pot 1 will be separated into the 5 groups, then the teams from Pot 2 will be picked and one each added to the 5 groups and so on and so forth. There is a staggering amount of possible group combination’s (anyone want to do that math??) so I’m just going to look at a few different scenarios.

First, naturally, let’s take a look at some possibilities for my beloved Sparrowhawks. I’m going to start by saying there really is not going to be any easy group out of the 5, especially knowing that you have to win the group to advance. That being said, here’s the ideal situation I would like to see unfold for Togo.

Out of Pot 1 I’ll be hoping to be grouped with Ghana. It pains me to say that because of my West African bias but for Togo to move on they are most likely going to have to go through West Africa and I get the feeling Ghana is the most vulnerable with the uncertain status of Michael Essien and Stephen Appiah going forward as well as The Black Stars chronic lack of finishing up front. I would also be OK being in a group with Cote d’Ivoire. Egypt I think will end their World Cup drought this time around and Nigeria and Cameroon have looked awfully good so far in qualifying so those 3 are to be avoided.

In pot 2 my preference would be Algeria. Admittedly I don’t know much about them so it’s more of my awareness of the other 4 options that leads me to preferring the Algerians. Mali I think will be a surprise qualifier this time around, Morocco and Tunisia are always tough and Guinea has a dangerous side with the likes of the Bangoura’s and Pascal Feindouno. That being said, Guinea would be my second choice out of that Pot.

On to Pot 3. It was a toss up for me between Kenya and Gabon. I’d be ok with either one honestly. This pot seems to have the most wild cards in it. What’s the deal with Burkina Faso? Where did they come from and are they for real? Benin also seems to be getting their act together at the right time (not to mention the removal of their meek and non-intimidating moniker) and Zambia will be a tough draw for anyone, as Togo found out in the first round of African Qualifying. I’m going to go with Kenya though out of this pot as I think they may be the easiest draw.

So, let’s recap. The ideal group for Togo I feel would be comprised of Ghana, Algeria, and Kenya. Very winnable in my estimation. And on the flipside, the worst case scenario for Togo would be to be joined by Egypt, Mali, and Zambia.

As far as a possible Group of Death, I can’t imagine that kind of a group not having Togo in it because I feel Togo is the best team in Pot 4, although my friend over at the Malawi blog may have something to say about that. :) So, a couple of combination’s that I would classify as Group’s of Death would be:

Egypt, Mali, Zambia, and Togo (which I mentioned above)
Nigeria, Morocco, Burkina Faso, Togo
Cameroon, Tunisia, Benin, Togo

Just my thoughts. No matter how it turns out it will be interesting to observe. Allez les Eperviers!